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07/11/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Paula Creamer squeezed one final par out of prickly Oakmont and threw her hands over her face. The left hand was bandaged thumb-to-wrist, something else to absorb the tears.
She cried, yes, but this time the source of her waterworks was victory, not defeat. This time the sight of her on-course sighs was endearing, not frustrating.
This is the Paula Creamer we've been waiting for all along. And boy did she arrive at the right time.
Creamer broke through for her first major championship Sunday, winning the biggest one of them all, the U.S. Women's Open, with a steely two-under 69 in the final round.
Just four months after surgery to repair ligament damage in her left thumb -- four months after she wondered if she would ever play golf at a high level again -- Creamer was the only player to finish under par on a course that was built 107 years ago to confound the game's best.
Never shooting worse than a 72, Creamer posted a three-under 281 for the championship to beat Suzann Pettersen and Na Yeon Choi by four shots.
"It's incredible," Creamer gushed soon after the final round -- and it was.
Consider that Creamer played her last 52 holes in under 36 hours after the tournament was suspended early on Friday because of storms. Also consider that long-hitting Argentine Angel Cabrera won the men's U.S. Open at Oakmont in 2007 with a five-over 285.
How did Creamer do it? By being the player we all thought she would be five years ago when she became the youngest winner in the history of the LPGA as an 18-year-old who hadn't yet walked in her high school graduation.
Down to the last hole, Creamer never buckled. This wasn't the player who huffed and puffed her way to an out-of-sorts 79 in the third round of last year's U.S. Women's Open at Saucon Valley.
Creamer hit out of a bunker on a third of her holes that day, including one shot that sailed over the green and onto the trampled grass of a pedestrian path.
She chunked three chip shots and walked off with a triple-bogey, handing her ball to a young girl in the gallery. She sighed her way through the round that day, playing herself out of contention for the second year in a row.
There were sighs at Oakmont, too, but of a different kind. Creamer stepped away from an approach shot late in the final round, took a deep breath, then lined it back up and knocked it safely onto the green.
A television camera caught her shaking out the jitters and flashing a smile that stretched all the way to the Pennsylvania Turnpike.
It was in the bag.
With no traffic ahead of her on the leaderboard, and no one close in her rearview mirror, Creamer kept her foot on the pedal all the way to the end, making two late birdies and three straight pars to finish off her ninth career LPGA title.
It was, finally, the first of what should be a career full of major championships.
"I can't even describe what I feel," Creamer said. "It is just amazing to have my name on this trophy with some of the best players that have ever played the game."
Creamer's victory gave American women two majors in the same season for the first time in three years. (Cristie Kerr won the LPGA Championship last month to become the No. 1 player in the world.)
More important, perhaps, is this: We finally got another glimpse of the Paula Creamer who once dared to challenge Annika Sorenstam on a ruling at the season-ending ADT Championship. That was in 2005, when Creamer was a rookie and Sorenstam was only the best player in the world.
Oakmont saw the gutsy, get-out-of-my-way Creamer who won seven titles by the time she was 22 years old. It was the steady, laser-focused player who once shot a 60, the second-lowest score in LPGA history.
Her victory on Sunday should finally allow us to forget the gum-snapping Paula Creamer who appeared in those Precept commercials with Nick Price a couple of years ago, blowing bubbles and talking about puppy dogs and crushes.
She'll always be the Pink Panther, for sure, but any notion that Creamer is a less-than-serious competitor disappeared with those butterflies in her stomach on Sunday.
Creamer is a major champion now, bandages and all.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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