NASCAR needs to control on-going Edwards-Keselowski feud

Autoracing Betting Lines

03/08/2010 - Hampton, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Prior to the start of the 2010 season, NASCAR essentially told Sprint Cup Series drivers, "Boys, have at it and have a good time." Perhaps NASCAR should redefine its new rules on allowing more on-track freedom for drivers, following Carl Edwards and Brad Keselowski's frightful incident in the closing laps of Sunday's race at Atlanta.

Keselowski got his bell rung when Edwards intentionally bumped him from behind and sent his No.12 Penske Dodge flying upside down into the wall along the frontstretch at the fast 1.54-mile track.

Edwards was more than 150 laps behind at the time of the crash, due to a previous encounter with Keselowski earlier in the race. Keselowski clipped Edwards and shot him up to the track before he made contact with Joey Logano and then slammed into the wall.

Obviously, it was payback time for Edwards, after he spent most of the race in the garage for repairs on his Roush Fenway Racing Ford.

Keselowski was not injured during his spectacular crash, but appeared to be a bit dazed and confused when he exited his battered car under his own power.

"It's one thing to race somebody hard and to get into an accident," Keselowski said. "When you're going for position, it's another to intentionally wreck somebody doing 195 m.p.h. at a track like this."

NASCAR immediately took action when they parked Edwards for the remainder of the event and ordered him to the hauler for a not-so-pleasant discussion with race officials.

"I think we probably won't have as many run-ins now as we had in the past, and that's a good thing," Edwards said. "Both of us probably will be better off."

Right now, NASCAR faces a dilemma on how to handle the latest in the on-going feud between Edwards and Keselowski. The sanctioning body currently is reviewing the episode between the two drivers, and could hand down hefty penalties if warranted.

"I would say that there seems to be a history between the two drivers, and I'm not going any further on it right now," NASCAR vice president of competition Robin Pemberton said after the race.

The feud between the two began last April when Keselowski hit Edwards from behind on the final lap at Talladega. While Keselowski drove on to his first Sprint Cup victory, Edwards' car spun and then sailed into the safety fence along the frontstretch. Eight race fans sustained minor injuries after being struck by debris from his car.

Later in the season, both drivers tangled in a Nationwide Series race at Memphis, with Keselowski turning Edwards around in the closing laps.

Keselowski has a reputation among fellow competitors as being an overly aggressive driver. Denny Hamlin certainly would agree with that assertion, after the two engaged in a heated rivalry during the final Nationwide races last season. Keselowski spun Hamlin at Phoenix, and Hamlin retaliated with a bump from behind the following week in the season-finale at Homestead.

While the Hamlin-Keselowski rivalry has simmered for the time being, the feud between Edwards and Keselowski has reached a boiling point. Edwards counter- attack at Atlanta could have produced devastating consequences.

So, should NASCAR suspend Edwards at least one race for his premeditated action against Keselowski? Probably so. Will they? Probably not. If Edwards is suspended, it would be a huge blow towards his chances of making the championship Chase in the fall.

Suspensions are not common in NASCAR's top circuit. Only two Cup drivers have been suspended for a race in the past decade. Kevin Harvick sat out the spring race at Martinsville one day after he was parked for rough driving in the truck race there. NASCAR grounded Robby Gordon for the August 2007 race at Pocono following his on-track altercation with Marcos Ambrose in the inaugural Nationwide event at Montreal.

Even though NASCAR adopted a more hands-off policy this year, Edwards crossed the line at Atlanta, and he should be punished.

It's time for NASCAR to take the appropriate action.

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Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

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Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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